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CG

Coronado Global Resources Inc. (CODQL)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q1 2025 topline fell sharply as met coal prices slumped: revenue was $449.2M, down 19% QoQ and 33% YoY; realized met price declined to $151.3/t as PLV HCC averaged $185/t in the quarter .
  • Results missed S&P Global consensus: Revenue $449.2M vs $519.6M estimate; EPS -$0.57 vs -$0.33; EBITDA -$72.8M vs -$11.6M as weaker pricing and shipment delays weighed; 1 estimate contributed to revenue/EPS consensus (interpret with caution).*
  • Liquidity actions intensified: total liquidity $325.1M (cash $229.7M, ABL availability $95.7M) with lenders extending covenant waivers while Coronado pursues an ABL restructure and other options; management is also seeking timing relief on Stanwell rebate and royalties .
  • H2 catalysts: Mammoth and Buchanan expansion projects are on track (Buchanan ~90% complete), expected to lift volumes and lower capex/costs; additional cost and capital reductions of “up to $100M” targeted for FY25 to preserve cash amid low pricing .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Execution resilience amid weather: ROM production was “on plan” despite heavy Queensland rainfall; prioritized met export production and began clearing timing-related shipment delays into Q2 .
  • Expansion projects tracking: Mammoth ramping with second mining unit online in early April; Buchanan expansion ~90% complete, commissioning targeted for June quarter, expected to reduce costs and extend mine life 20+ years .
  • Cost-focus and structural actions: Average mining cost per tonne improved vs prior year; management announced up to $100M further cost and capital reductions for FY25, including idling Logan surface operations and phasing Buchanan development .
    • CEO: “We will deliver material volume increases in H2 as our high-return Mammoth and Buchanan growth projects are on schedule.”

What Went Wrong

  • Price and mix pressure: Group realized met price fell to $151.3/t, -7% QoQ; PLV HCC index down 9% QoQ; lower pricing and some timing delays reduced revenue .
  • Liquidity constraints and financing risk: Liquidity at $325M with an ABL waiver requiring minimum cash; lenders can alter terms, and management is pursuing restructuring/new facilities .
  • Earnings under pressure: March-quarter revenue declined to $449M (-19% QoQ, -33% YoY) on weaker index pricing; consensus misses on revenue, EPS, and EBITDA reflect operating leverage to prices and shipment timing slippage into Q2 .*

Financial Results

Headline P&L vs prior quarters

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$608.2 $558.0 $449.2
Diluted EPS (USD)—-0.03*-0.57*
EBITDA ($USD Millions)—-29.4*-72.8*
EBITDA Margin %—-5.6%*-16.2%*
Net Income Margin %—-10.3%*-21.4%*

Notes: “—” not disclosed in the quarterly activities reports. Asterisked values are from S&P Global; Values retrieved from S&P Global.

YoY revenue reference: Q1 2025 total revenues $449.2M vs Q1 2024 $668.1M (down 32.8%) .

Segment revenue (geography)

Segment Revenue ($USD Millions)Q3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Australia – Total Revenues$366.0 $334.4 $273.3
United States – Total Revenues$242.3 $223.1 $176.0
Group Total Revenues$608.2 $557.5 $449.2

KPIs and operating metrics

KPIQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Sales Volumes (Mt)3.9 4.1 3.4
Realized Met Price ($/t, group)$179.6 $163.2 $151.3
Avg Mining Cost per Tonne ($/t, group)$117.7 $97.3 $112.8
Export Sales (% of total)70.6% 68.2% 69.7%
Met Coal (% of coal revenues)95.2% 94.0% 95.5%
Cash & Equivalents ($M)$176.3 $339.6 $229.7
Available Liquidity ($M)$326.1 $467.9 $325.1

Results vs S&P Global consensus (Q1 2025)

MetricActualConsensusSurprise
Revenue ($USD Millions)$449.2 $519.6*Miss
EPS (USD)-0.57*-0.33*Miss
EBITDA ($USD Millions)-72.8*-11.6*Miss
Consensus coverage (# est.)—Revenue: 1; EPS: 1*—

Asterisked values are from S&P Global; Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Why the miss: lower realized pricing (PLV HCC avg $185/t in quarter), shipment delays (co-shipper, rail, ship loader) that are expected to recover in Q2, and prioritization shifts (export met vs domestic thermal) .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Capital Expenditure ($)FY25$230–$270M (accounting basis)“On track” to be within range (cash CapEx front‑loaded; ~55% spent by end‑Apr) Maintained
Cost/Capex ReductionsFY25—Up to $100M additional reductions through rephasing (Buchanan), idling Logan surface ops, supplier/budget cuts at Curragh Introduced (cost down)
Production RampH2 2025—Volume step-up from Mammoth and Buchanan; H2 cash flow expected to improve as capex falls Introduced (positive)
Liquidity/ABLNear-termExisting ABL with waiversRestructure/replace ABL; waiver extended to 31 May with conditions (cash-backing $22M guarantees; term flexibility) In process
Stanwell Rebate/RoyaltiesNear-term—Discussing timing relief on rebate ($7M/month at current prices) and state royalties ($10M/month) In process

No formal quantitative revenue, margin, tax, or segment guidance was provided in Q1 2025 quarterly filings/call; commentary centers on cost discipline, project timelines, and liquidity .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ3 2024 (Q-2)Q4 2024 (Q-1)Q1 2025 (Current)Trend
Liquidity/Balance SheetIssued $400M notes (9.25%) to enhance liquidity .Liquidity $468M; Net debt $85M .Liquidity $325M; ABL waiver extended; pursuing ABL restructure and other options .Tighter liquidity; active refinancing.
Cost ReductionIdled fleets; productivity gains at Curragh .Avg mining cost/t down to $97.3 .Up to $100M cost/capex reductions (Logan surface idled, Buchanan rephased) .Accelerating cost actions.
Expansion ProjectsMammoth & Buchanan on budget/schedule .Mammoth “First Coal” in Dec; Buchanan progressing .Mammoth ramping (2nd unit Apr); Buchanan ~90% complete, June commissioning .On-track; H2 uplift.
Market & TariffsSteel raw materials under pressure; PLV fell to 3‑yr low; expecting recovery ex-China .PLV avg ~$203/t; stable-to-soft backdrop .PLV avg ~$185/t; China/Indonesia exports, tariffs pressured prices; management sees H2 improvement potential .Weak Q1, cautious H2 optimism.
Stanwell Contract——Seeking timing relief on rebate/royalties; 2027 “step change” as obligations ease .Increasing focus.
Safety/OperationsTRIR 1.13; Ops improvements, US steady .TRIR 1.18; Curragh productivity, inventory build .TRIR 0.95; ROM on plan despite rain; shipment timing recovery expected in Q2 .Steady improvement.

Management Commentary

  • CEO framing on resilience and H2 setup: “We executed to plan… costs reduced significantly… we will deliver material volume increases in H2 as our high-return Mammoth and Buchanan growth projects are on schedule.”
  • Market view and H2 outlook: Q1 prices near marginal-cost support, early signs of recovery in late April; confidence in H2 improvement driven by ex-China steel recovery, tariffs on Chinese exports, supply rationalization, and Indian demand .
  • Liquidity priorities: “We continue to pursue all options… restructure the ABL… engaging with Stanwell and the State Government about temporarily extending payment terms… actions… are intended to improve near-term liquidity.”
  • CFO pricing sensitivity: “Every $1 change in the [PLV] index is worth $8–$9 million of revenue and cash for the rest of the year.”

Q&A Highlights

  • ABL facility path: Multiple restructuring/replacement options “quite advanced;” cost likely higher but “palatable” vs liquidity benefits; preference to keep ABL structure for execution speed; basket capacity under notes provides flexibility .
  • Waiver constraints: Temporary minimum $100M cash requirement exists under current waiver until May 31; prepaid financing structures permissible under ABL .
  • Cash headwinds: Monthly Stanwell rebate ≈$7M at current prices; state royalties ≈$10M/month; working to rephase timing with counterparties/government .
  • Cost levers: $100M cost/capex reduction plan includes idling Logan surface ops (undergrounds continue), rephasing Buchanan development, and further fleet reductions at Curragh .
  • Breakeven discussion: Management refrained from providing a PLV cash breakeven; reiterated focus on cost-out and benefit from H2 capex roll-off and project ramp .
  • Mammoth ramp cadence: 3 continuous miners in 2025; the second started early April, third in July; secondary mining from 2026 could provide low-cost uplift .

Estimates Context

  • S&P Global consensus (limited coverage: 1 estimate) vs actual Q1 2025: Revenue $519.6M est. vs $449.2M actual; EPS -$0.33 est. vs -$0.57 actual; EBITDA -$11.6M est. vs -$72.8M actual. Expect downward estimate revisions near term unless PLV HCC continues to firm and shipment timing reversals lift Q2 .*
  • Forward setup: Management expects volumes to step up in H2 and capex to fall post-commissioning, implying potential positive estimate revisions in H2 if pricing stabilizes/improves as indicated .

Asterisked values are from S&P Global; Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Near-term earnings remain highly sensitive to PLV HCC; each $1/t move ≈$8–$9M revenue/cash lever (H2 biggest exposure as volumes lift) .
  • H2 setup is materially better: Mammoth and Buchanan add low-cost tonnes; capex rolls off; timing slippage from Q1 expected to unwind in Q2 .
  • Liquidity is the swing factor: $325M available, but waiver constraints and cash backing reduce flexibility; ABL restructuring and timing relief on rebates/royalties are key watch items for multiple expansion .
  • Structural cost actions are accelerating (up to $100M FY25): idling Logan surface ops, rephasing development, and supplier negotiations at Curragh; monitor realized unit costs through Q2–Q3 .
  • Stanwell overhang eases from 2027 (rebate and discounted volume step-down), a medium-term catalyst for margins/cash conversion .
  • Trading lens: Q2 could see partial rebound on shipment timing and PLV HCC uptick from late April; however, sustained valuation re-rating likely requires visible ABL resolution and confirmation of H2 volume/capex trajectory .

Additional Notes on Sources

  • 8‑K Item 2.02 furnished Q1 2025 ASX quarterly activities report, including production/sales, realized pricing, and liquidity data .
  • Prior two quarters’ ASX quarterly activity reports accessed via 8‑Ks dated Jan 22, 2025 (Q4 2024) and Oct 28, 2024 (Q3 2024) .
  • Q1 2025 earnings call transcript reviewed in full for management commentary, liquidity detail, and project status .
  • Other press releases in Q2 2025 window: none found in repository for CODQL (Apr 1–Jun 30, 2025) [ListDocuments: press-release returned 0].